US 2020 Elections

Outlook and impacts on markets

17 September 2020

What are the perspectives for the American elections and how will the electoral race affect the markets? With this in mind, Turim MFO promoted a webinar with Daniel Clifton, partner and head of political analysis at Strategas Securities.

In a conversation moderated by our partner and strategist, Nelson Abrahao, Clifton explained that, with over a month before the elections, there are still too many variables to make a bet. But in the current scenario, the most likely result will be a win for the Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden.

“Today, Biden has a 55% chance of winning the election. But don’t count on Trump’s defeat. As the economy  and numbers of Covid-19 cases start to improve, so does support for him,” he says.

According to him, the markets are a good metric for voting intentions: if in the months of August to November they are on the rise, the greater the probability that the current president will remain in power. If they are falling, the opposition has a better chance. “In more than 100 years, this indication has been correct by 87%. And, as we have seen US stocks rising since August, this indication shows that the market still sees a better result for Trump.”