Turim Insights

A monthly conversation with our team about markets and strategies

10 January 2024

The global disinflation process throughout 2023, the end of the interest rate hiking cycle in major economies, and the strong performance of risk assets at the end of the year were some of the highlights of this month’s Turim Insights webinar.

The prospect of a more dovish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) led the market to attribute a high chance that the United States’ interest rate will take a downward trajectory from the March meeting. This perception also catalyzed a strong upward movement in major stock indices, both globally and in the Brazilian market.

Regarding the stock market, the profit expectations for the S&P 500 for 2024 and 2025 remain relatively stable, surpassing long-term growth, but challenges may still arise in the second half of this year.

In Brazil, the highlight is the trade balance, which ended 2023 with a significant surplus of almost 100 billion dollars. The favorable situation in external accounts, combined with high interest rates, helps explain the appreciation of the exchange rate during the year.

Regarding monetary policy, despite the progress of disinflation and the improvement in the global environment, the Brazil’s Central Bank has not indicated any intention to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings.

The webinar featured Leonardo Martins Moraes, Turim’s Co-CEO, Fernando Verboonen, Turim’s CIO, Nelson Abrahao, Turim’s partner and strategist, and Pedro Hokama, Head of Equities and Credit at Turim.