Turim Insights

March’s Visão Turim brought together Henrique Santos (Partner and Portfolio Manager), João Mello (Portfolio Manager), and Eduardo Lopes (Liquid Assets Analyst) to discuss recent developments in the global outlook, the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East, the dynamics of the Brazilian economy, and the most relevant market movements.

Highlights:

• Geopolitics and oil: The escalation of the conflict involving Iran pushed oil prices higher and introduced new inflationary risks. In extreme scenarios, a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly increase energy costs and disrupt global supply chains.

 

• United States: The Supreme Court’s decision to revoke tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could lead to a reduction of around 3 percentage points in the effective tariff rate on U.S. imports, according to preliminary estimates, increasing uncertainty around fiscal revenue.

 

• Brazil: GDP grew slightly less than expected in the fourth quarter, reinforcing the picture of stagnation in household consumption during the second half of last year. On the inflation front, the IPCA-15 surprised with a sharp increase between January and February, although affected by more volatile items and a more challenging seasonal window.

 

• Markets: International investment flows into emerging markets remain strong in 2026, which is also reflected in the solid performance of Brazil’s currency and stock market, although much of the Ibovespa’s gains have been concentrated in a small number of companies.